The call ▼ DOWN
MSFT underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-18 09:19 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT outperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMSFTvs
Wrong — MSFT +0.8% vs SPY -0.5% — MSFT beat SPY by 1.3%
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