The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-18 09:19 · graded in public
Right · score 80%
directionUP
confidence59%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade80%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE +1.6% vs SPY -0.5% — XLE beat SPY by 2.1%