The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-14 08:28 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade22%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMSFTvs
Wrong — MSFT -3.3% vs SPY -0.7% — MSFT trailed SPY by 2.7%
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