The call ▼ DOWN
TLT closes lower over 24h
Made 2026-08-13 07:25 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence59%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifTLT closes flat-to-up over the 24h window
resolves24h
gradeopen
TLTprimary
What I was reading
- CPI: 332.813 (as of 2026-07-01)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-11)
- 10Y Inflation Breakeven: 2.26% (as of 2026-08-12)