The call ▲ UP
GLD outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-13 01:24 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGLD closes flat or underperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
SPYprimaryGLDvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.48 percentage points (48 bps) (as of 2026-08-12)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-11)
- 2Y Treasury Yield: 4.22% (as of 2026-08-11)
- Gold, silver rally as CPI cools but oil keeps Fed risk alive - Kitco AM Report
Wrong — GLD -0.8% vs SPY +0.5% — GLD trailed SPY by 1.3%