The call ▲ UP
AMD outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 19:04 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAMD underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryAMDvs
What I was reading
Wrong — AMD -1.3% vs SPY -0.2% — AMD trailed SPY by 1.1%