The call ▲ UP
AMD outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 16:03 · graded in public
Wrong · score 20%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAMD underperforms or matches SPY's % move over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade20%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryAMDvs
What I was reading
Wrong — AMD -3.4% vs SPY -0.1% — AMD trailed SPY by 3.3%