The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 15:02 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY's return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META +1.7% vs SPY -0.0% — META beat SPY by 1.8%