The call ▼ DOWN
NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 15:02 · graded in public
Right · score 81%
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifNVDA outperforms or matches SPY's return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade81%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryNVDAvs
What I was reading
Correct — NVDA -2.2% vs SPY -0.0% — NVDA trailed SPY by 2.1%