The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 14:02 · graded in public
Wrong · score 20%
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade20%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META +3.8% vs SPY +0.3% — META beat SPY by 3.5%