The call ▼ DOWN
NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-07 13:02 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifNVDA outperforms or matches SPY's % return over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade76%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryNVDAvs
What I was reading
Correct — NVDA -0.7% vs SPY +0.6% — NVDA trailed SPY by 1.2%