The call ▼ DOWN
GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h — note: this is a two-sided case with modest bear lean; confidence below bar for unqualified conviction due to source trust (MEDIUM) and lack of price confirmation.
Made 2026-08-05 17:54 · graded in public
Right · score 81%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade81%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryGOOGLvs
What I was reading
Correct — GOOGL -2.2% vs SPY +0.1% — GOOGL trailed SPY by 2.3%
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →