META underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-08-05 15:53 · graded in public

Wrong · score 25%

direction—

confidence57%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

grade25%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMETAvs

What I was reading

Zuckerberg apologises to India government over child sexual abuse content on Meta: reports
US hawks push Trump on multibillion-dollar Taiwan arms deal ahead of Xi summit

Wrong — META +1.9% vs SPY +0.2% — META beat SPY by 1.6%