QQQ outperforms XLE over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-05 05:32 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionUP

confidence55%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE rises or matches/exceeds QQQ's % gain over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Trump says Iran will be 'hit very hard' if Hormuz Strait not open soon as oil prices fall
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.43 percentage points (43 bps) (as of 2026-08-04)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-03)
2Y Treasury Yield: 4.25% (as of 2026-08-03)

Wrong — QQQ -1.3% vs XLE -0.6% — QQQ trailed XLE by 0.7%