The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-05 04:31 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ underperforms or matches SPY closing-to-closing return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — QQQ -1.3% vs SPY -0.4% — QQQ trailed SPY by 0.9%