The call ▲ UP
QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-05 03:31 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ closes at or below SPY's relative performance over the 48h window, or VIX spikes >2% on new Iran/Russia escalation headlines
resolves48h
grade27%
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Oil prices fall on hopes Strait of Hormuz could reopen
- US stock market hits record high amid hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening
- Iran war live: Tehran-Oman talks on Hormuz ‘positive’; ship hit in Red Sea
Wrong — QQQ -1.3% vs SPY -0.4% — QQQ trailed SPY by 0.9%