The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms QQQ over 48h
Made 2026-08-04 21:20 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains more than +0.3% relative to QQQ, or both move within ±0.2% of each other
resolves48h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -0.6% vs QQQ -1.3% — XLE beat QQQ by 0.7%