The call FLAT
NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h as DeepSeek competitive threat + OpenAI pricing compression fuel analyst downgrades in AI capex margins.
Made 2026-08-04 12:08 · graded in public
Wrong · score 17%
direction—
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifNVDA outperforms SPY or matches SPY performance over 48h, OR NVDA stock price gains more than SPY over the period
resolves48h
grade17%
SPYprimaryNVDAvs
What I was reading
- OpenAI reaches one billion active users as it cuts GPT-5.6 prices by up to 80%
- DeepSeek V4 Flash on a Single AMD MI300X
Wrong — NVDA +6.1% vs SPY +1.6% — NVDA beat SPY by 4.5%