The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-03 09:49 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META +5.6% vs SPY +3.3% — META beat SPY by 2.4%