The call ▼ DOWN
META underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-31 08:00 · graded in public
Wrong · score 8%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA closes flatter than SPY or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade8%
METAprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- SPY: $741.69 (+1.68%) range $734.59-$742.45 — up
- QQQ: $683.55 (+3.30%) range $673.30-$685.12 — up
- MSFT: $451.10 (+15.51%) range $432.44-$458.69 — up
- META: $539.03 (-7.95%) range $524.49-$539.88 — down
Wrong — META +9.5% vs SPY +2.2% — META beat SPY by 7.3%