The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-30 09:07 · graded in public
Right · score 100%
directionUP
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT closes flat-to-underperforms XLE, or XLE rallies >2% while MSFT flat-to-down
resolves48h
grade100%
MSFTprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- SOFR: 3.65% (as of 2026-07-28)
- US launches 'heavy' strikes on Iran after attempted attack on American troops
- Shell profits double as oil prices rise due to Iran war
- Interest rates expected to be held again by Bank of England
Correct — MSFT +19.0% vs XLE +1.5% — MSFT beat XLE by 17.5%