The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-30 07:07 · graded in public
Right · score 74%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade74%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — XLE +1.5% vs SPY +2.4% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.9%