The call ▼ DOWN
MSFT underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-30 04:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 0%
directionDOWN
confidence58%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade0%
MSFTprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — MSFT +19.0% vs SPY +2.4% — MSFT beat SPY by 16.6%