The call ▼ DOWN
USO remains flat or declines over 48h vs. crude supply baseline
Made 2026-07-28 20:05 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifUSO closes up >1.5% on new Iranian supply-disruption wire (refinery, port, strait interception) within 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
USOprimary
What I was reading
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