The call ▲ UP
BTC closes flat-to-up over 24h given risk-on regime override of credit warnings
Made 2026-07-26 14:14 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes down >1% or HY spreads cross 300 bps before observation window closes, signaling credit unwind not priced into current VIX level
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
Bitcoinprimary
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