The call ▲ UP
BTC outperforms USD-denominated safe assets (TLT, UUP) over 48h as trade-war escalation triggers portfolio rebalancing into non-sovereign assets
Made 2026-07-25 18:14 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-down vs. prior close or underperforms TLT/UUP over 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Small businesses sue Trump administration to stop latest wave of tariffs
- EU to pay ‘very big price’ for Google fine, says Trump
- Trump threatens EU tariffs over tech fines as trade tensions escalate