The call ▼ DOWN
GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-24 22:55 · graded in public
Wrong · score 18%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGOOGL outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade18%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
GOOGLprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — GOOGL +4.4% vs SPY +0.3% — GOOGL beat SPY by 4.1%