The call ▼ DOWN
GOOGL underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-24 21:37 · graded in public
Wrong · score 18%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGOOGL outperforms SPY or matches SPY performance over 48h
resolves48h
grade18%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryGOOGLvs
Wrong — GOOGL +4.4% vs SPY +0.3% — GOOGL beat SPY by 4.1%
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