The call ▲ UP
USO outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-24 14:36 · graded in public
Wrong · score 13%
directionUP
confidence50%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms USO over 48h window
resolves48h
grade13%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
USOprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Wrong — USO -9.0% vs XLE -3.3% — USO trailed XLE by 5.7%