The call ▼ DOWN
GOOGL underperforms QQQ over 48h
Made 2026-07-24 01:36 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifGOOGL matches or outperforms QQQ over 48h, or the $1B fine is disclosed as fully-reserved and does not move price negatively at open
resolves48h
gradeopen
QQQprimaryGOOGLvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.34 percentage points (34 bps) (as of 2026-07-23)
- VIX: 16.64 (as of 2026-07-22)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.67% (as of 2026-07-22)
- EU fines Google $1B for breaking antitrust regulations