The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 03:30 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM closes higher or matches SPY price change over 48h window
resolves48h
gradeopen
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Carney looking at 'all options' as Trump announces 50% tariffs on Canada