The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-22 00:30 · graded in public
Wrong · score 21%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade21%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Trump imposes 50% tariff on Canadian imports
- US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for deaths of soldiers
- Oil Buyers Battered by the Iran War Energy Crisis Race to Build Buffers
Wrong — XLE +1.5% vs SPY -1.3% — XLE beat SPY by 2.9%