The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 14:22 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionDOWN
confidence60%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY price action over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Ryanair profits drop as Iran war puts off passengers and lifts fuel costs
- U.S. and Iran launch new strikes after 3 U.S. service members are killed
- U.S. Average Gas Price Returns to $4 a Gallon as Iran Crisis Escalates
Wrong — XLE +2.0% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 1.3%