The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 09:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence56%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains on SPY or matches SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade28%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Ryanair profits drop as Iran war puts off passengers and lifts fuel costs
- Another U.S. Service Member Is Killed as Iran War Expands
Wrong — XLE +1.4% vs SPY +0.7% — XLE beat SPY by 0.8%