MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-07-17 07:26 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence58%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSFTvs

What I was reading

China's Xi calls for step up of global effort in AI, as US curbs squeeze China's tech access
India Is Moving Fast to Build A.I. Data Centers. A Coastal City May Pay the Price
Kimi K3: Open Frontier Intelligence
$100 AI Music Video: Claude Fable 5 vs. GPT-5.6 Sol