The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms XLE over 48h
Made 2026-07-16 20:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence61%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade22%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran targets military bases as US launches wave of strikes
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes, Escalating Tensions Over Strait of Hormuz
- Americans Are Spending, and Not Just on Necessities
Wrong — SPY -1.1% vs XLE +1.6% — SPY trailed XLE by 2.8%