The call ▲ UP
SPY outperforms XLE over the next 48h
Made 2026-07-16 08:25 · graded in public
Wrong · score 19%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE gains more than SPY over 48h, or XLE rallies >1.5% while SPY falls or stays flat
resolves48h
grade19%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Iran targets military bases as US launches wave of strikes
- Iran War Live Updates: U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes for 5th Straight Day
- NextEra and Dominion File to Form a Huge Power Company
Wrong — SPY -1.5% vs XLE +2.1% — SPY trailed XLE by 3.6%