The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-07-15 16:24 · graded in public
Wrong · score 24%
directionDOWN
confidence61%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms or matches SPY over the 24h window
resolves24h
grade24%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE +2.3% vs SPY +0.1% — XLE beat SPY by 2.1%