XLE underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-07-15 02:24 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence63%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifXLE gains more than SPY, or SPY declines while XLE rises

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryXLEvs

What I was reading

Trump reinstates Iran port blockade and vows 20% charge on cargo passing through Hormuz
Trump scraps threat of 20% fee on Hormuz cargo as US resumes blockade of Iran ports
Strait of Hormuz 'faultline' exposes weakness of the US-Iran deal
Trump Flip-Flops on Strait of Hormuz, Creating New Risks for Global Economy