The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-14 00:21 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
direction—
confidence62%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade76%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Gold Declines as Renewed US-Iran Strikes Raise Rate-Hike Bets
- Oil Climbs, US Futures Dip on Fresh Iran Strikes: Markets Wrap
- Iran war live: US launches more attacks, Trump orders blockade in Hormuz
Correct — XLE -0.4% vs SPY +0.8% — XLE trailed SPY by 1.2%