The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-10 10:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 18%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade18%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE +3.5% vs SPY -0.3% — XLE beat SPY by 3.8%