The call FLAT
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-09 14:08 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
direction—
confidence59%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade25%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE +2.1% vs SPY +0.6% — XLE beat SPY by 1.5%
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