The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-09 03:08 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence64%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms SPY or matches SPY price action over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -0.9% vs SPY +1.3% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.2%