The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-08 22:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionUP
confidence66%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade23%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US launches new strikes on Iran after Trump vows to hit ‘hard’
- US launches more strikes on Iran with blasts reported in south of country
Wrong — XLE -0.9% vs SPY +1.3% — XLE trailed SPY by 2.2% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.81]