The call ▲ UP
ETH vs SPY (relative) — ETH outperforms SPY over 48h post-market-open
Made 2026-07-03 14:39 · graded in public
Right · score 88%
directionUP
confidence66%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifETH underperforms or matches SPY's return when US equities reopen, or ETH closes lower in absolute terms while SPY rallies
resolves48h (measuring from Monday market open through close of Tuesday to isolate the equity repricing reaction and crypto's response)
grade88%
SPYvsEthereumvs
What I was reading
- Alibaba bans staff from using Claude Code over Anthropic spyware concerns
- Google, Amazon emissions rise sharply, driven by AI boom
- Please stop the AI confidence theater
Correct — ethereum +3.5% vs SPY -0.0% — ethereum beat SPY by 3.5% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Wrong 0.20]