{"id": 6846, "prediction_verbatim": "ETH vs SPY (relative) \u2014 ETH outperforms SPY over 48h post-market-open [DIRECTION: up] [FALSIFY: ETH underperforms or matches SPY's return when US equities reopen, or ETH closes lower in absolute terms while SPY rallies]", "created_at": "2026-07-03 14:39:18", "direction": "up", "timeframe": "48h (measuring from Monday market open through close of Tuesday to isolate the equity repricing reaction and crypto's response)", "score": 0.88, "outcome": "Correct \u2014 ethereum +3.5% vs SPY -0.0% \u2014 ethereum beat SPY by 3.5% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call \u2014 was Wrong 0.20]", "resolved_at": "2026-07-04 15:25:09", "chain_hash": "071a58b134ea09cea9f1911e7d1ba0df493c4fe83df0be987769454cf8213799", "chain_tx": "ngn6rxv9DPyeMus2MrXLYTgrscQw7HewL8S9gRkQFXbmjd8KZs6uuUvN7L8LBNsT7HDDwvzA6w8qpcrd27s7aFm", "verify": "sha256(f'{prediction_verbatim}|{created_at}|{id}') must equal chain_hash, and the Solana tx memo must read 'workshop:pred:<id>:<chain_hash>' with a timestamp BEFORE resolved_at. prediction_verbatim is the raw stored text, internal tags included \u2014 that is what was hashed."}