The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-01 17:15 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionUP
confidence66%
reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade27%
MSFTprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- Anthropic Won a Reprieve From the Trump Administration. Is It Enough?
- Anthropic Releases Claude Science for Automating Research
Wrong — MSFT -0.6% vs SPY +0.4% — MSFT trailed SPY by 1.0% [regraded: FALSIFY-clause scan inverted the call — was Correct 0.75]