The call FLAT
SPY closes flat to modestly up over 48h; geopolitical and policy headlines do not trigger systematic repricing
Made 2026-06-29 02:43 · graded in public
Wrong · score 23%
directionFLAT
confidence67%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes down >1% over 48h, signaling macro shock repricing into the cluster of tariff/geopolitical/recession concerns
resolves48h
grade23%
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iran after second shipping attack
- US Conducts Fresh Round of Strikes in Iran After Second Ship Hit
- Fed stress tests reveal whether banks can survive a 10% unemployment shock
- Trump threatens 100% tariff on any country taxing US tech giants
Wrong — SPY moved +2.4% ($729 → $747)