BTC closes flat over 48h on Hormuz escalation already-priced-in and lack of fresh tail hedging signal.

The call FLAT

Made 2026-06-29 00:53 · graded in public

Wrong · score 25%

directionFLAT

confidence61%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes +2% or higher over 48h, or a new IRGC strike occurs and BTC fails to spike within 6h of announcement

resolves48h

grade25%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

US and Iran exchange strikes and accuse each other of violating ceasefire
Mideast Live Updates: Dispute Over Strait Deepens as U.S. and Iran Trade Attacks
Helicopter Crash Near Major Saudi Oil Refinery Kills 14 People

Wrong — bitcoin moved -1.8% ($59,343 → $58,284)