SPY higher within 48h — Easing geopolitical risk (ceasefire agreement, Trump conflict-end claims) combined with strong China export data (+19% vs forecast beat) normalizes risk appetite. Copper's post-ceasefire advance signals industrial demand confidence. This matches counterfactual learning: when OPEC/supply normalization + geopolitical de-escalation align, equity recovery follows. VIX likely remains subdued (<18) given lack of pre-market gap-down futures and risk-asset momentum into China data release.